With only 1 Week of games gone, reading things into them is a precarious situation, so until things settle down I reduce my stake accordingly. Last Week I didn’t bother to post, as I didn’t feel that there was enough facts etc behind my plays. I thought The Vikings would win but was not prepared to take the numbers given. Luckily Dallas went 3 pts up and I backed Minny on the M/L at 2.05. I also backed The Raiders on the M/L for a loss.
The one thing that came out of last Weeks games was the continuation of how the salary cap affects depth, especially on the Offensive line. It appears that Teams can game-plan to cover up problems in other areas to some degree but if the O-line is banged up then a Team is in trouble. Baltimore was a prime example. With missing C Mike Flynn, the juggling had started, then to lose their best in Jon Ogden, an already challenged Offense ground to a halt. When this happens it makes the opposition Defense look good and the problem for us bettors is deciding what level the Defense is actually playing at.
With that in mind the game that took my eye was the NY Jets v The Bengals. To read the headlines you would get the impression they are a loaded unstoppable juggernaut with an above average Defense. A few years ago I realised that Herm Edwards doesn’t do a game-plan until he has seen the line on the game. If he is favoured, out comes the conservatism, if not, expect anything. Going into last Weeks game I expected plenty of Curtis Martin, but 196 yds ! receptions by 8 different receivers, 1 sack, 1 fumble, Herm must still be shaking looking at the stat sheet. The logical reasoning would be that The Bengals came with an ordinary Defense which was bad against the run, hadn’t been upgraded significantly because of potential young talent and had injuries to boot. On the other side of the ball The Jets were praised for keeping a potent Offense to 24 pts! There was even a piece in a write-up that said Sam Cowart was back to his best. Once again to my mind it was the Bengals O-line that caused the problem, they were lucky to have anybody who could snap the ball, not alone score 24 pts. The Jets now go to the west side 3.5 favs and when Herm sees that his nut sack will tighten harder than no other time since being a fav in Chicago 2 years ago, that’s when I noticed the difference in his ball bag. Martin will see even more ball this Week and Anthony Becht will get several balls thrown his way, most of which he will drop. This is not to say San Diego is a good Team but Schott knows his limitations and The Jets Defense is going to find out what a top class running back and dangerous tight-end can do when they have an O-line on the same page.
San Diego +3.5
Of course if the above is true then The Bengals Offense is not what it appeared to be last Week. There is no doubting the playmakers and Palmers potential but with the injuries on the O-line again this Week, taking on a Defense like Miami is going to give problems. Considering everything The Miami Defense played well to only give up 10 pts to a top class coached side and although Tennessee was playing conservative given Miami’s Offensive troubles I don’t think The Titans went in with a game-plan to throw excessively. The Dolphins Offense is without a doubt in desperate straits but looking at the Titans game I am inclined to over-look it. Losing your 1st & 2nd string RBs in the 1st Qtr is tough on anybody and everyone knows if Fielder is uncomfortable he will throw picks. Feeley was put in an impossible situation against a good Defense and having a running back that had only been with the Team 2 days. Under the circumstances,21 completions from 31 against a nickel Defense is admirable and even his pick has been blamed on Gordon’s knowledge of the play- book. If it wasn’t for The Bengals injuries on Defense I would not be making a play but getting +5 is worth a bet.
Miami +5
One of the games that I did take notice of the stats was St Louis v Arizona. My main format for h’capping games is how Teams perform the basics regardless of the score. St Louis played a perfect game on Offense according to my stats but only scored 17 pts. 4 turnovers was the reason for this, something The Rams seem to do on a regular basis and as the season progresses my system takes that into account. However, given that The Rams are playing an Atlanta Team that has problems with injuries, personnel, execution of game-plan, I am willing to take a chance this Week.
I realise that Arizona are not a good side and taking into account The Rams penchant for turnovers, I would not make a habit of backing them but they should be favourites in this game.
St Louis M/L
Other observations this Week are Denver wont get their way with a Jacksonville Team that has a good Defense but no Offense, being Denver they will probably get the long F/G that is the spread. The under looks the way but 37 ish isn’t enough.
New Orleans played a rock bottom game last Week and I keep shying away from taking them on because my usual betting of action pts would leave me in a mess if they ever played to their Offensive talent, which would definitely turn up if I opposed them. For the same reason I have shied away from taking on Detroit but they are in my sights. I do have strong opinions on the Eagles v Vikings game but much will depend on the outcome of Sunday’s bets. I always feel like a Tortoise putting his head out of the shell in the first few Weeks so if it isn’t chopped off I will post my thoughts Monday.
As usual, things this time of year can go
up so please, no derogatory comments but constructive criticism is more than welcome, also any views that may help the cause.
Best of Luck this Week
The one thing that came out of last Weeks games was the continuation of how the salary cap affects depth, especially on the Offensive line. It appears that Teams can game-plan to cover up problems in other areas to some degree but if the O-line is banged up then a Team is in trouble. Baltimore was a prime example. With missing C Mike Flynn, the juggling had started, then to lose their best in Jon Ogden, an already challenged Offense ground to a halt. When this happens it makes the opposition Defense look good and the problem for us bettors is deciding what level the Defense is actually playing at.
With that in mind the game that took my eye was the NY Jets v The Bengals. To read the headlines you would get the impression they are a loaded unstoppable juggernaut with an above average Defense. A few years ago I realised that Herm Edwards doesn’t do a game-plan until he has seen the line on the game. If he is favoured, out comes the conservatism, if not, expect anything. Going into last Weeks game I expected plenty of Curtis Martin, but 196 yds ! receptions by 8 different receivers, 1 sack, 1 fumble, Herm must still be shaking looking at the stat sheet. The logical reasoning would be that The Bengals came with an ordinary Defense which was bad against the run, hadn’t been upgraded significantly because of potential young talent and had injuries to boot. On the other side of the ball The Jets were praised for keeping a potent Offense to 24 pts! There was even a piece in a write-up that said Sam Cowart was back to his best. Once again to my mind it was the Bengals O-line that caused the problem, they were lucky to have anybody who could snap the ball, not alone score 24 pts. The Jets now go to the west side 3.5 favs and when Herm sees that his nut sack will tighten harder than no other time since being a fav in Chicago 2 years ago, that’s when I noticed the difference in his ball bag. Martin will see even more ball this Week and Anthony Becht will get several balls thrown his way, most of which he will drop. This is not to say San Diego is a good Team but Schott knows his limitations and The Jets Defense is going to find out what a top class running back and dangerous tight-end can do when they have an O-line on the same page.
San Diego +3.5
Of course if the above is true then The Bengals Offense is not what it appeared to be last Week. There is no doubting the playmakers and Palmers potential but with the injuries on the O-line again this Week, taking on a Defense like Miami is going to give problems. Considering everything The Miami Defense played well to only give up 10 pts to a top class coached side and although Tennessee was playing conservative given Miami’s Offensive troubles I don’t think The Titans went in with a game-plan to throw excessively. The Dolphins Offense is without a doubt in desperate straits but looking at the Titans game I am inclined to over-look it. Losing your 1st & 2nd string RBs in the 1st Qtr is tough on anybody and everyone knows if Fielder is uncomfortable he will throw picks. Feeley was put in an impossible situation against a good Defense and having a running back that had only been with the Team 2 days. Under the circumstances,21 completions from 31 against a nickel Defense is admirable and even his pick has been blamed on Gordon’s knowledge of the play- book. If it wasn’t for The Bengals injuries on Defense I would not be making a play but getting +5 is worth a bet.
Miami +5
One of the games that I did take notice of the stats was St Louis v Arizona. My main format for h’capping games is how Teams perform the basics regardless of the score. St Louis played a perfect game on Offense according to my stats but only scored 17 pts. 4 turnovers was the reason for this, something The Rams seem to do on a regular basis and as the season progresses my system takes that into account. However, given that The Rams are playing an Atlanta Team that has problems with injuries, personnel, execution of game-plan, I am willing to take a chance this Week.
I realise that Arizona are not a good side and taking into account The Rams penchant for turnovers, I would not make a habit of backing them but they should be favourites in this game.
St Louis M/L
Other observations this Week are Denver wont get their way with a Jacksonville Team that has a good Defense but no Offense, being Denver they will probably get the long F/G that is the spread. The under looks the way but 37 ish isn’t enough.
New Orleans played a rock bottom game last Week and I keep shying away from taking them on because my usual betting of action pts would leave me in a mess if they ever played to their Offensive talent, which would definitely turn up if I opposed them. For the same reason I have shied away from taking on Detroit but they are in my sights. I do have strong opinions on the Eagles v Vikings game but much will depend on the outcome of Sunday’s bets. I always feel like a Tortoise putting his head out of the shell in the first few Weeks so if it isn’t chopped off I will post my thoughts Monday.
As usual, things this time of year can go
up so please, no derogatory comments but constructive criticism is more than welcome, also any views that may help the cause.Best of Luck this Week
